Most projects do not fail suddenly. They fail gradually. The signs appear early, sometimes weeks before anyone says the word "problem" out loud. Learning to read those signs is one of the most useful things a project manager can develop.
After more than 17 years managing capital projects at Six Flags Great Adventure, I have seen enough projects go sideways to recognize the early indicators. They are usually not dramatic. That is exactly what makes them dangerous.
The Schedule Is Being "Managed" Rather Than Followed
The first sign is subtle. The schedule still looks fine, but team members are spending more time explaining why items are behind than they are working to close the gap. Status updates get longer and more detailed. The focus shifts from progress to justification.
When a project is healthy, people report where they are and what is next. When it is quietly struggling, they report where they are and why the shortfall is reasonable. Both conversations look like status updates. Only one of them is moving the project forward.
If you are managing a project with a fixed deadline, this pattern is especially costly. Every week spent managing the narrative rather than the schedule is a week you will not get back.
Contractors Stop Flagging Problems Early
On a well-run project, contractors surface issues the moment they identify them. Not because they are required to, but because they trust that early information will be handled constructively rather than punitively.
When that trust is absent, the behavior changes. Problems get held longer. Issues that could have been resolved in day two get disclosed in week three. By then, the options are narrower and the cost of resolution is higher.
If your contractors have stopped bringing you bad news early, the problem is not the contractors. Something in the project environment has made it safer to wait than to disclose. That is worth examining directly.
The Scope Conversation Keeps Reopening
A project with clearly defined and locked scope does not require repeated scope conversations. When the same questions about what is included keep surfacing after those decisions were supposedly made, the scope was either not communicated clearly or not accepted genuinely.
Every reopened scope conversation costs time and creates ambiguity for the teams doing the work. Contractors cannot build to a specification that is still being debated. Decisions that appear settled but are actually pending act as invisible blockers across multiple work streams simultaneously.
The fix is to close these conversations formally and document the outcome. If the scope genuinely needs to change, run it through a proper change control process with a full assessment of schedule and budget impact. If it does not need to change, close it once and stop accepting further requests to reopen it.
Testing and Inspection Are Being Treated as the Finish Line
This one appears late but signals a problem that started early. When construction runs long and the schedule compresses, testing and inspection are often the first things to get squeezed. The team treats physical completion as the end of the project and treats everything that follows as administrative.
On any project involving safety approvals, regulatory review, or operational certification, that assumption is wrong and costly. Testing is not a formality. It is a substantive phase with its own timeline, documentation requirements, and dependencies. A ride that is physically complete but has not passed inspection is not a completed project. It is a completed project with an outstanding critical path item.
I plan inspection and certification milestones as integrated phases from the beginning. When they are built into the schedule with realistic timelines rather than added at the end as an afterthought, this problem largely disappears. When they are not, the last month of a project becomes a crisis that the first month of planning should have prevented.
The Risk Log Stops Getting Updated
A risk log that does not change week over week is not a sign that the project has no risks. It is a sign that no one is actively managing the risk identification process. Projects do not become less risky as construction progresses. The nature of the risk changes, but the pressure increases.
When I see a risk log that has not been meaningfully updated in several weeks, I start asking questions. Either the team has stopped paying attention to emerging risks, or they are aware of risks they have not documented. Both are problems. The log exists to force regular honest evaluation of what could go wrong and what the mitigation plan is. If it is not being treated that way, it is not doing its job.
What to Do When You See These Signs
The response to early warning signs is always the same: surface the problem, assess the actual position honestly, and make a realistic plan to recover. What you should not do is hope the signs resolve themselves. They rarely do. A project that is quietly struggling in month two will be loudly struggling in month four.
The earlier you acknowledge what you are seeing, the more options you have. That is the only real advantage an early warning gives you. Do not waste it.
More on how I approach capital project management is available on my biography page and my featured profile. You can also connect with me through my PMI community profile and read more of my writing on brianvientos.com.
About the Author
Brian Vientos is a project manager at Six Flags Great Adventure in Jackson, New Jersey, with more than 17 years of experience managing capital projects from $2 million to $8 million. He holds a PMP certification, a Lean Six Sigma Green Belt, and a B.S. in Business Administration from Monmouth University.
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